Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 0.016576 0.018754 0.021112 0.023856 0.026962 0.030368 0.034390
2025-09-21 0.012825 0.015754 0.019195 0.023539 0.028882 0.035243 0.043406
2025-09-28 0.010540 0.013690 0.017601 0.022821 0.029613 0.038167 0.049785
2025-10-05 0.009561 0.013002 0.017474 0.023721 0.032238 0.043473 0.059467
2025-10-12 0.008698 0.012308 0.017188 0.024280 0.034351 0.048180 0.068690
2025-10-19 0.008023 0.011764 0.017004 0.024894 0.036512 0.053053 0.078504
2025-10-26 0.007246 0.010974 0.016365 0.024751 0.037515 0.056293 0.086176
2025-11-02 0.006630 0.010346 0.015882 0.024755 0.038682 0.059806 0.094489
2025-11-09 0.005993 0.009615 0.015163 0.024309 0.039080 0.062133 0.101102
2025-11-16 0.005606 0.009235 0.014942 0.024601 0.040632 0.066338 0.111012
2025-11-23 0.005162 0.008717 0.014449 0.024397 0.041336 0.069201 0.118917
2025-11-30 0.004919 0.008508 0.014433 0.024967 0.043353 0.074352 0.131075
2025-12-07 0.004440 0.007864 0.013650 0.024185 0.043027 0.075578 0.136651
2025-12-14 0.004092 0.007417 0.013165 0.023877 0.043499 0.078215 0.144964
2025-12-21 0.003715 0.006883 0.012481 0.023147 0.043136 0.079314 0.150522
2025-12-28 0.003620 0.006852 0.012690 0.024060 0.045854 0.086194 0.167458
2026-01-04 0.003481 0.006729 0.012717 0.024628 0.047959 0.092091 0.183003
2026-01-11 0.003360 0.006627 0.012772 0.025250 0.050212 0.098432 0.199944
2026-01-18 0.003152 0.006339 0.012451 0.025105 0.050936 0.101852 0.211298
2026-01-25 0.002980 0.006106 0.012216 0.025109 0.051952 0.105913 0.224289
2026-02-01 0.002771 0.005783 0.011775 0.024657 0.051990 0.107990 0.233277
2026-02-08 0.002658 0.005646 0.011700 0.024953 0.053609 0.113434 0.249911
2026-02-15 0.002502 0.005408 0.011398 0.024746 0.054134 0.116613 0.261858